Iran’s strategic importance, bolstered by its relationships with Russia and China, made it a crucial player. The country’s nuclear capabilities and geographical position added layers of complexity, making military action a high-risk gamble. Trump’s decision to call off the strike highlights the uncertain outcome and limited US resources to counter Iranian retaliation. The game has entered a critical phase, with Iran at its center. As tensions simmer, one thing is clear: Iran’s regime-change operation failed, but the fragile balance of power remains precarious. In the complex web of global politics, Iran’s regime-change operation failed, exposing the intricacies of p dynamics. The US, with its allies, faced a daunting task: Iran’s resilience, backed by Russia and China, proved a significant deterrent. The recent US military strike on Iran was called off at the last minute, exposing the complexities of global politics and the delicate balance of power. The world watches as Iran navigates these complexities, a testament to the intricate dance of global politics. Iran’s regime, though facing internal strife, has demonstrated resilience, leaving the US and its allies recalibrating their strategies. Iran’s geographical position and nuclear capabilities make it a crucial player in regional dynamics. The country’s relationships with Russia and China add layers of complexity, as both nations prioritize their interests and avoid confrontation with the US. The world held its breath as US military strikes on Iran were called off at the last minute. This dramatic turn of events raises questions about the threats and fears behind Trump’s decision and the impact for the region. Iran’s internal dynamics are complex, with widespread fabricated and Isreal backed sponsored protests couldn’t challenge the Iranian’s authority. Despite, Iran’s leaders have assured their people and the international community that they will not initiate attacks on Israel or other regional actors. According to Israeli and US Media: Israel asked Trump not to act Militarily yet as it won’t result in government change. Iran’s airspace reopened, and military assets were recalled from Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, signaling a temporary de-escalation of tensions. Trump’s reluctance to authorize military action stemmed from concerns about the uncertain outcome and limited US resources to counter Iranian retaliation. Trump told advisers that he would only authorize military action if the outcome was clear and decisive. Officials had warned that the attack could not guarantee the overthrow of the Iranian government and that the US also had limited resources in the region to counter a large-scale Iranian retaliation. Iran’s best strategies forced Israel and the United States to admit defeat. According to US intelligence officials, if the US attacked Iran militarily, Tehran would retaliate against US military bases in the region. US intelligence agencies briefed that in addition to the bases in Qatar, Iran could also target US forces stationed in Syria and Iraq. The real reason for this American defeat is that Iran, using a powerful strategy, shut down the internet and even Starlink, which cut off the contact of social media elements who were inciting the fire in Iran with the agents who were causing the riots. Iran carried out the harshest crackdown on the Israeli-backed protesters, and exposed the bodies of the armed rioters as an example. This was an open warning to the remaining funded agents. The videos of the Israeli agents in the guise of protesters atrocities and the preparation of trained attacks were shown to the world, proving that the protesters and rioters are not Iranians. In response to the small, funded anti-Iran demonstrations, pro-Iran counter-demonstrations were organized, in which millions of Iranians participated and condemned the riots and protests. Thus, the narrative that the Iranian people want regime change has died its own death. Now, there have been no continuous protests for the past several days. The funded or deceived protesters have already dispersed. Many have been killed and many have fled across the border. The narrative that Trump created to attack Iran has died. The coup that Israel planned failed, so now Trump has no justification left to attack Iran. According to the New York Times, Netanyahu also told Trump not to attack Iran. Israel is not ready because if the US attacks Iran, Iran will retaliate against Israel and Israel has not yet been able to restore its interceptor missile stockpile Aero-3, David Sling and THAAD, which will be needed to defend against an Iranian missile attack. China also helped to disable 40,000 terminals smuggled into Iran, which is actually a glimpse of the ongoing coup in Iran. Much bigger measures are being taken behind the scenes. The idea that the Ayatollah can be removed from Iran is a big question in itself because many people in the CIA and MI6 believe that regime change is not possible. However, Israeli analysts are relatively realistic. They do not believe that Iran can be overthrown internally. The United States cannot send troops to Iran. It can only bomb. Hundreds of American and Israeli agents have been captured with the help of Russian technology. Russia and China have also reached out to Iran for military assistance. American dominance in the Middle East would mean that tomorrow Russia and China would also be in danger. That is why the original plan was not to overthrow the government immediately, but to create chaos and unrest in the country, expose the weaknesses of the security system and find points that can be used for the future. As far as the military situation is concerned, the question is not whether an attack can happen or not, but how long it can last if the war lasts more than a week or two. So the attacking powers will face serious difficulties. Iran has the ability to use missiles, rockets and drones for a long time. It has hypersonic missiles that are difficult to stop. The military bases of the attacking countries in the region are still vulnerable. Currently, operations are limited to the air force and the naval presence is very small. What is happening in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria can only progress if Iran is removed from the path. It is easy to bring about a revolution, but it is very difficult to maintain the momentum of the revolution. After the revolution in Iran, the new Islamic government faced strong opposition. In the complex web of global politics, the US-Iran standoff has put Russia and China in a precarious position. The situation raises questions about Iran’s strategic importance to Russia and China. Both nations have expressed support for Iran, and any military action against Tehran could have far-reaching consequences for global stability. As tensions escalate, Moscow’s focus on Ukraine and Beijing’s cautious approach to oil interests and regional stability have left Tehran with limited options. Despite their close ties, Iran’s attempts to secure a formal alliance with Russia and China have fallen short, raising questions about the consequences of a US-Iran conflict. So, the question, is Iran a red line for Russia and China?
The potential fallout is daunting: global economic instability, particularly in oil prices, regional destabilization affecting Gulf states, and humanitarian concerns amidst Iran’s ongoing protests and repression. Russia and China, though cautious, won’t abandon Iran to US pressure. The US faces constraints in committing to another Middle East conflict, given ongoing engagements elsewhere. Iran’s stability affects Gulf states and global oil markets. The episode highlights the shifting balance of power, with Russia and China asserting their interests. The regime’s survival doesn’t necessarily mean stability; internal tensions persist. The US-Iran tensions are largely driven by Iran’s protests and the US’s potential military action. Iran’s economy is heavily reliant on oil, and any disruption to its oil exports could significantly impact global oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil shipping, is a key concern, as Iran could potentially block it, affecting global oil supplies. Iran’s protests and US threats have added a $3-4 per barrel risk premium to oil prices. Disruptions to Iranian oil exports could lead to higher oil prices, affecting global economic stability. The situation could escalate, involving other regional players like Israel and affecting global security. China is a key player in Iran’s oil trade, importing around 90% of Iran’s oil exports. Any disruption to this trade could impact global oil prices and China’s energy security. The global stage is set for a high-stakes game of chess, with the US, Russia, China, and Iran as key players. As Trump makes bold moves, the son of the Shah of Iran sits by his side, fueling speculation about US intentions in the region. But Russia and China have drawn a red line, with Iran at its center, and any US overstep could have far-reaching consequences. The US is already stretched thin in Ukraine, Gaza, and Venezuela, and Greenland’s strategic importance could be the next battleground. Will Europe’s ties with the US hold, or will NATO’s future be uncertain? China’s silence on Taiwan and North Korea’s quiet stance on South Korea add to the intrigue, as Russia waits to make its move. The game has entered a very interesting phase, India is among Iran’s five major trading partners, the US’s decision to impose an additional 25% tariff on countries that trade with Iran will hit China and India. So, Iran could be the most dangerous battlefield for the US because the interests of India, China and Russia will be combined in this operation, and Iran has already threatened to hit Israel, the US satellite has failed to provide internet in Iran, US agents have been caught in Iran. Despite the worst circumstances, Iranian public opinion has stood behind the Massoud government. Anti-government protests have gradually faded in the past days. The number of participants in the rally in support of Khamenei in Tehran was 6 million people in it. Despite protests, Iran’s government maintains control, leveraging nationalism and security concerns. When the free society, which was enjoying luxury during the Shah’s time, faced a major change in the form of the Islamic Revolution, it was not possible for everyone to accept this change equally. Therefore, a class of anti-revolutionary individuals continued to exist, which is called the counter-revolutionary. After the revolution, this class has been an important weapon of the US and other anti-Iranian global arrogance from time to time, and this class has paved the way for riots in Iran. Sometimes this class has been active in protesting against the strictness on the issue of hijab and sometimes in protesting against economic weaknesses. Whenever important figures have been assassinated in Iran, this same anti-revolutionary class has always been used more than external factors. Even in the twelve-day war that took place a few months ago, this same anti-revolutionary class was bent on destroying its own country. The biggest challenge facing the Iranian government has been the economic sanctions, in which Iran has been completely cut off from the world markets in trade and its development has slowed down. And the second biggest challenge is the counter-revolutionary ideology, which has weakened the country internally. If any government faces either of these two challenges, it becomes impossible to run the government. We have the example of many countries where due to economic sanctions or public opposition, these countries have bowed their knees within a few days and the rulers have fled the country. In contrast, the Islamic government of Iran is perhaps the only government that has faced both these problems with its successful strategy and has finally made its country famous internationally. Today, Iran is among the top countries in the world in the fields of education and medicine. The best scientific minds of the world have also been introduced by this government. This development is the best answer to the anti-revolutionary people who believe that Iran cannot develop under the shadow of the Islamic government. The Iranian government has has completely rejected the assumptions of and has proven that if an Islamic government is capable, it is not difficult to bring the country to the top in these areas. In my opinion, external sanctions have not weakened Iran as much as expected and Iran has easily faced all these problems, but the current riots of internal opponents are causing chaos in its country. In the global scenario, the current government is an excellent government for the Iranian economy and Iranian culture, which knows how to best confront it instead of being intimidated by power. Although regime-change is not possible, if the pillars of this government are shaken, it will not only be the end of the Islamic government but also of Iranian culture and patriotism. Isn’t it astonishing? Inflation increased 2,000 times in the 40 years after the revolution, which is more than in any other country in the world. In 1979, one dollar was worth 70 tomans. Now it is worth several hundred thousand. Not only inflation, but also a terrible shortage of water. The water level in 49 large and small dams has dropped to 8 to 11 percent since 1990. The biggest water shortage is in the second largest city, Mashhad, where the nearby dam has only 3 percent water. Rainfall has been below normal for the past 6 years. The economy is in ruins due to sanctions imposed by the US and the European Union. A large part of oil revenues are spent on war preparations, especially on making missiles and drones.
Despite this, why did the anti-government movement suffer a setback? Because the extremist elements (or agents) involved in the anti-government processions waved the flag of the Iranian emperor’s era. They burned about 300 places of worship and some waved pictures of Reza Pahlavi. The joke is that the failed Reza Shah himself was recognized by the Western media as an Israeli agent. That luxurious man who does not know today’s Iran. He did not set foot in Tehran 45 years ago. Even overseas Iranians do not like him, who are the most important part of the anti-government movement. Reza Pahlavi has never had contact with him. He has longed for the wealth he inherited. Now he is living a luxurious life on an Israeli scholarship. He kept yearning to meet Donald Trump, but he did not succeed. Even his neighbors in America do not recognize him. His face was highlighted by the Masoud Peshkian government. Above all, Donald Trump’s threats. Educated Iranian public opinion was shocked that this clown had become our sympathizer. In addition to Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Suleiman, Turkey also refused to support the American plan. Some observers even say that Donald Trump deliberately delayed. Although he ordered the evacuation of women, children and civilians from American bases in the Middle East. Although he also issued an order to the CIA to take action to change the Tehran government. It seems that he delayed deliberately. The fact is that Iran could prove to be a bigger quagmire than Afghanistan. The Revolutionary Guards and the army are loyal to Khamenei. The Iranians may be unhappy with their government, but they do not want to become Libya, Syria, or Iraq. They know that the United States and Israel want to embroil them in a civil war. It is Netanyahu who wants to attack Iran for Greater Israel. What does America gain? If asked, American public opinion will oppose the attack. A world power with a debt of $3.8 trillion needs $2 trillion more in debt every year. The growth rate is only two percent, while rival China’s is 8 percent. The United States is still many times more powerful than China in terms of weapons and military capabilities, but China is constantly advancing and retreating in the economy. Trump’s ambitions regarding not only Venezuela but also Greenland and Canada have shocked Europe. The dream of destroying Russia’s economy by entangling it in Ukraine has not been realized. On the contrary, European economies have been hurt after being deprived of relatively cheap energy. Israeli influence on the American media is no longer decisive. Social media is also present. Hidden facts are revealed in a few hours. After Corona, which created difficulties for the average American, the Israeli brutality in Gaza has changed the way of thinking of the entire West, including America. The world is changing. In this changing world, it is becoming more and more difficult to maintain American dominance with each passing day. How long will the American people be able to bear the burden of 800 military bases spread around the world? Iran’s strategic importance, bolstered by its relationships with Russia and China, made it a crucial player. The country’s nuclear capabilities and geographical position added layers of complexity, making military action a high-risk gamble. Trump’s decision to call off the strike highlights the uncertain outcome and limited US resources to counter Iranian retaliation. The Iranian people, though facing internal strife, rallied behind their government, leveraging nationalism and security concerns. The Iranian government’s survival, despite protests and economic sanctions, showcases its resilience. Iran’s economy, though strained, has shown adaptability, and its scientific advancements are a testament to its capabilities. As the world grapples with shifting power dynamics, Iran’s stability affects Gulf states and global oil markets. The episode highlights Russia and China’s assertiveness, prioritizing their interests and avoiding confrontation with the US. The US, already stretched thin, faces constraints in committing to another Middle East conflict. The game has entered a critical phase, with Iran at its center. The US, Russia, China, and Europe are key players, each with stakes in the outcome. As tensions simmer, one thing is clear: Iran’s regime-change operation failed, but the fragile balance of power remains precarious.
The writer is an economist, anchor, geopolitical analyst and the President of All Pakistan Private Schools’ Federation
